What Kind of “Trade” Is Higher Education?
My baby at his high school graduation
I’ve always thought of higher education as an investment, whether one with a financial ROI or something more intangible for society. But as the mother of two college-aged sons, the “mal-employment” trend for graduates, explained in this PBS NewsHour video, hits home.
- In the first eight months of 2010 fewer than 50 of every 100 B.A.-holders <25 years of age held a job that REQUIRED a college degree.
- For the college grads who are employed, 7 of the most prevalent 20 jobs they held did not require a degree.
- More grads <25 years old work as cashiers, retail clerks, and customer service representatives than computer professional professions and all types of engineers combined.
- Twice as many worked in bars and restaurants than as engineers
- More worked in offices and as bank tellers than as computer professionals
Can you say double macchiato?
The Project on Student Debt organization’s report on 2009 college grads (devastating timing, kids) shows they have an average debt of $24,000 with rising default rates; it’s worse if they went to a for-profit college.
Long tail effects of youthful unemployment
The Economic Policy Institute reports (my emphasis added):
But this recession has specific qualities that reinforce this problem for young workers. Most important, the bursting of the housing bubble resulted in the loss of around $5 trillion in residential wealth. With plummeting home values and shrinking 401(k)s, many people lost a significant portion of their planned retirement. For example, the median household with a person between the ages of 55 and 64 saw their wealth fall by almost 38% between 2004 and 2009 (Baker 2009). In the face of such a loss, many older workers chose to delay retirement and either continue working or go back to work because they could not afford to retire. The size of the labor force declined by 6.3% for young workers, but it increased 8.5% for workers 55 and older. Not only are there fewer jobs in the economy, but also fewer workers retiring and opening up positions…
Moreover, a downturn in the youth labor market is particularly worrisome because it comes at a critical time for workers. Work during teen years is characterized as being highly path-dependent—work status in one period is very sensitive to work status in the time period before. Individuals with more work experience are more likely to work. Sum et al. (2008) have shown the importance of high school employment on post-high school employment and concluded that those who do not work in high school were more likely to be completely disconnected from the labor market. This is an intuitive conclusion, as those with work experience have both shown basic jobs skills and benefited from human capital investment, such as training, that make them more attractive for further work. With a dramatic downturn in the young adult labor market, fewer young workers are being incorporated into this path.
A momentum or swing trade?
We’ll know if negative ROI on higher ed is an actual trend in the future. Perhaps it’s a microtrend or just a blip. But it seems to me that we’re not being honest with ourselves when we say higher ed is THE path to economic prosperity.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke missed the point in this response to a 60-Minutes question about the gulf between rich and poor in this country. Ahem, Dr. Bernanke, you’re an economist, if every person in America had a Ph.D there still wouldn’t be enough jobs — even menial ones — to go around!
My co-author of Tradeoffs, Matt Davio, and I talked about this trend. He’s a professional trader and views an investment of time and money in an education as a swing trade. I also see a possible fit with momentum trading and so-called value investing.
What say ye? Is a college education an investment? Or is it just a pricey weigh station for young adults to wait out the meltdown? What kind of trade DID higher ed resemble and what kind DOES it now?
Gotta Watchit
PBS is airing a great series called Mind Over Money.
In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, NOVA presents “Mind Over Money”—an entertaining and penetrating exploration of why mainstream economists failed to predict the crash of 2008 and why we so often make irrational financial decisions. It’s a program that reveals how our emotions interfere with our decision-making and explores controversial new arguments about the world of finance. Before the current crash, most Wall Street analysts believed that markets are “efficient”—that investors are reasonable and always operate in their own economic self-interest. Most of the time, these assumptions of classical economics work well enough. But in extreme situations, people panic and conventional theories collapse. In the face of the recent crash, can a new science that aims to incorporate human psychology into finance—behavioral economics—do better?
I’m looking forward to seeing the experiment where they wire traders’ brains and bodies during trading sessions. Behavioral economics is a favorite interest of mine, hence Tradeoffs: Leveraging the Longs & Shorts of Life. Dan Ariely wrote a great book on the subject, Predictably Irrational. I highly recommend it.
The Tradeoffs Road Trip Give-Back Partnership
HELP! I need a non-profit/charity partner on this summer’s Tradeoffs Road Trip.
I’ll be going coast to coast interviewing financial traders for the book I’m co-writing with Matt Davio, “Tradeoffs: Leveraging the Longs & Shorts of Life.”
I want to raise funds for an organization that helps those who find themselves at the other side of the financial spectrum from the traders. Here’s what comes to mind:
- Low-wage earners (Habitat for Humanity)
- Millions at risk of foreclosure (Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America)
- Billions who need better financial literacy (Institute for Financial Literacy)
- An organization whose programs include credit counseling along with other essential human services (United Family Services)
I haven’t fully defined the means by which I’ll raise money for the worthy partner, as I’m sure they’ll have great ideas of their own. That said, the corporate sponsors of the trip should be happy to kick in something for a worthy cause in addition to some of the grassroots efforts I can put into play, including:
- Motorcycle riders/clubs sponsoring a leg of the 8000 mile journey
- Sponsored Tweetups
- Side “wagers” on road incidents like flat tires, number of rattlesnakes encountered, whether it snows in SD while I’m at Mt. Rushmore, etc
Please weigh in with a cause or organization that fits the theme of the Tradeoffs Road Trip.
Yes, I Laid It Down
Now that I’m “street legal” I’m motorcycle shopping for the TRADEOFFS ROAD TRIP.
Here’s a little video of me doing the “quick stop” exercise in this past weekend’s course.
Tamela’s “Quick Stop” from TamelaRich on Vimeo.
Let the shopping begin
Yesterday I drove a sweet Triumph Bonneville. I felt sort of like I’d moved from a Shetland pony to a Thoroughbred race horse in the course of a weekend. I’m no gearhead, but even I know that 865cc means a LOT of engine.
It didn’t necessarily get off to a great start. Pulling out of the dealership, the ultra-responsive throttle on that big engine got ahead of me and, horrors, I laid it down.
Dealing with adversity
You can judge a person pretty well by the way they deal with adversity. Having survived childbirth, teenagers, three tours of duty in corporate America and closing down an unprofitable business, I’ve had plenty of experience. I picked the bike up (by myself, all 495 pounds of it), apologized for the lapse and waited for the berating to begin. Thankfully it was not forthcoming.
The owner of the dealership was concerned about me and shrugged off the broken clutch handle. Nary a raised eyebrow. He pushed the bike back to the shop, got a technician to replace the handle, and off we went for my test drive. This bodes well — if I buy the Bonnie it will definitely be from Mark Engle.
What I like about the Bonnie: it’s a bike I can grow into without growing out of. I like the sweet purr of the engine — don’t try to sell me something that grumbles or whines. Both my feet touch the ground when I’m astride. I know I can pick it up by myself (!) and it’s pretty. There, I said it, “it’s pretty.”
I’m also planning to test drive a BMW G650, a CAN-AM Spyder and a Suzuki V-Strom 650.
Any other suggestions out there, bikers? Remember, I’ve got a 28″ inseam and a cruiser is bad for my back. It’ll have to be a standard or touring bike.
Announcing Tradeoffs: The Road Trip
Those who subscribe to my newsletter got the worldwide announcement first: I’m writing a book and promoting it with an 8000-mile, 19-state road trip!
Tradeoffs: Leveraging the Longs & Shorts of Life
Financial trader Matt Davio and I will use the language and practices of those who trade for a living to frame life’s tradeoffs: time for money, freedom for convention, risk for reward, and money for goods and services. Matt’s been interviewing subjects on his website for about six months now, and I’ll do my part from the road (mostly).
Every week I’ll be video blogging about where I’ve been, who I met and what I’ve learned.
In a post-meltdown world where so many people feel the stakes are higher and the margin for error more narrow than ever before, Tradeoffs will introduce a general interest reader to how traders view “scalp,” “swing,” “directional,” “fade” or “breakout” trading setups, how they mitigate risk, and how they live with the outcomes of their trades to do everything from choosing a career, mate and preschool, to helping a parent deal with end-of-life decisions.
Traveling America’s most storied highways
From NC I’ll travel through TN and AR to pick up what’s left of the old Route 66 beginning in OK. I’ll travel through TX, NM then veer north in Kingman, AZ to take in the Hoover Dam en route to Las Vegas for a layover with my parents and sister.
From Vegas, I’ll head west-northwest via the legendary Pacific Coast Highway to Eugene OR. After a layover with my co-author and his family in Bend, OR, I’ll head to Denver, CO to visit friends before heading east.
On the way back I’ll visit Mt Rushmore and Crazy Horse monuments, interview executives at the CME Group in Chicago, then head south to a suburb of Columbus, OH where I’ll visit with my brother (who rides BMWs) and his family.
The final leg of my journey will carry me through the West VirginiaTurnpike (Blue Ridge Mountains) and western VA before landing home in Charlotte.
That’s at least nineteen states, three time zones and a good 8000 miles.
Along the way I’ll frequent Diners, Dives and Drive-Ins and other famous Roadfood joints and occasionally couch surf with the community of financial traders who follow me on Twitter and my blog. I’ll include videos in my blog a couple of times a week and tweet daily. Most people will never take a trip like this, so I’ll do my best to bring you along (in the virtual sense).
Want to be interviewed, host an event or suggest a layover?
Want to sponsor part of this great adventure or know a company that might? Here’s what we’ve come up with so far:
- Motorcycle and gear sponsors
- Hospitality sponsors (food, hotels)
- Petrol products sponsors (fuel, oil)
- Related products: brokerage, mobile trading platforms, financial newsletters
And clients, I’ll be able to work from the road. I’ve got your back — even from two time zones away.
March Book Lust
Big news: I’m writing a book with Matt Davio called Tradeoffs: Leveraging the Longs & Shorts of Life. We’ll use the language and practices of those who trade for a living to frame life’s tradeoffs: time for money, freedom for convention, risk for reward, and money for goods and services.
In a post-meltdown world where so many people feel the stakes are higher and the margin for error more narrow than ever before, Tradeoffs will introduce a general interest reader to how traders view “scalp,” “swing,” “directional,” “fade” or “breakout” trading setups, how they mitigate risk, and how they live with the outcomes of their trades.
We have a book agent who’s excited about the project and will help us get the proposal in tip-top shape by the end of April so he can hit the road with it. Stay tuned!
Trading From Your Gut: How To Use Right Brain Instinct & Left Brain Smarts To Become a Master Trader
by Curtis Faith
Reviewed by Dasan: Legendary trader Richard Dennis believed that trading was so simple that anyone with the right training and psychology could do it successfully. After making millions for himself in the commodity, stock, and FOREX markets, he trained complete novices how to trade in 2 weeks. He called them the “turtles.” He was right – a large number of the “turtles” went on to become very successful traders in their own right. Curtis Faith, the author of this book, was one of best of the turtles.
In “Trading From Your Gut” Curtis Faith’s discusses a central aspect of trading success: Intuition. While most mediocre traders let emotions drive their trading, better traders use primarily rational thought. The best traders of all, the master traders, use a balance of intuition and rational thought. Like the experienced poker player that just knows what the other player has, these master traders can identify trend reversals simply by “gut feel” which comes from a combination of experience and underlying rational thought.
This is an excellent book for the intermediate level investor. The author does give a basic explanation of a rudimentary swing trade system, but it is just enough knowledge to be dangerous. I would not recommend this book for a rank novice. However, if you have some experience trading stocks or commodities already, this book is extremely valuable. For me as an experienced hedge fund investor, I found his concepts mainly affirmed in a concise way what has taken me years to learn. In this way, this book could make a moderately experienced trader more successful very quickly.
The main thesis of the book is the importance of intuition in trading, especially by experienced traders who already have mastered their emotions. He says it like this: “A balance between left-brain analysis and right-brain intuition is critical for optimal trading.” He quotes many experts in this book, which adds a lot of value; for example, he quotes Barry Ritholz’s idea that “wisdom is the capability to have `strong opinions, weakly held.’” Faith emphasizes the importance for a master trader to think independently. He writes “If you want to be a master trader, you need to develop your own reasons for making trades.” He illustrates the concept of waiting for the right trade by comparing it to surfing at the beach, waiting for the right wave. The book is full of detailed examples like this, which illustrate his trading concepts. Faith wraps up the book with a discussion on ways to limit risk by being flexible, having a plan “B” and sizing positions properly to avoid overcommitment of your capital.
This book is valuable to any serious trader or investor looking to raise the level of their game. Novice investors have other volumes to read first.
Here’s my co-author Matt interviewing author Curtis Faith:
The Back Channel: How Audiences are Using Twitter and Social Media and Changing Presentations Forever
by Cliff Atkinson
Reviewed by yours truly: This book caught my eye because it grasped a phenomenon I’ve observed at events where the audience gives more eyeball time to their netbooks and smart phones than to the presenter. I figured someday I’d figure out how to harness the power of this behavior, and author Cliff Atkinson beat me to it. Mr Atkinson is THE authority to write on the matter. In addition to writing Beyond Bullet Points, he designed the presentations that helped persuade a jury to award a $253 million verdict in the nation’s first Vioxx trial in 2005. Fortune magazine called the presentations “frighteningly powerful.”
For those new to the back channel and the ways of Twitter, never fear. The book starts there, not with boring exposition, but with a real-life event where panelist Guy Kawasaki noticed a critical tweet (Twitter update) about him and asked the tweep (person who tweeted) to step up and explain the remark. After setting the context for Twitter and the back channel with this case study, Mr Atkinson goes into the mechanics of Twitter and other technological means for sustaining an official back channel.
The part of the book that everyone presenting can use (with or without a back channel) describes how to be an editor, curator and taste-maker to your audience. Thinking of yourself in these ways makes it 100% easier to craft a presentation.
Mr Atkinson outlines a strategy for JOINING the back channel’s conversation, including how to manage a “conversational presentation.” Presenters with and without a back channel should follow this advice
You can no longer get away with putting up a slide that lists Agenda or Introduction at the start of your presentation. Nor can you get away with kicking off your presentation with too many details or a list of your accomplishments. In a world in which your audience is accustomed to high-quality media at their fingertips, you need to capture their attention out of the gate. You must engage your audience within the first five slides or at least the first five minutes of your presentation.
The book offers a chapter on how to handle the positive and negative feedback from the back channel. Particularly helpful is the advice that speakers should practice scenarios that put them in a range of difficult situations. He gives five scenarios to practice: “You’re not listening to us;” Your Facts are wrong or misleading;” “Your material is a mismatch for us;” “Your material is boring;” and “You made me mad.”
Finally, relying on an excellent case study from a conference gone snarky via the backchannel, Mr Atkinson shows how Chris Brogan (author of Trust Agents) turned the situation around. Here’s the 10-point checklist for managing an unruly back channel:
- Establish a reputation
- Listen and collect stories
- Dispense with pretense
- Talk to the elephant in the room (if there is one)
- Make it you, you, you instead of me, me, me
- Check in with the audience early and often
- Improvise
- Stay grounded
- Ignore the small stuff
- Keep things in perspective
This slim volume is worth the $34.99 list price and includes a free 45-day searchable online edition. Both of my thumbs are way up.
Why We Make Mistakes: How we look without seeing, forget things in seconds, and are all pretty sure we are way above average
by Joseph T. Hallinan
Publishers Weekly review: Pulitzer winner for his stories on Indiana’s medical malpractice system, Hallinan has made himself an expert on the snafus of human psychology and perception used regularly (by politicians, marketers, and our own subconscious) to confuse, misinform, manipulate and equivocate. In breezy chapters, Hallinan examines 13 pitfalls that make us vulnerable to mistakes: “we look but don’t always see,” “we like things tidy” and “we don’t constrain ourselves” among them. Each chapter takes on a different drawback, packing in an impressive range of intriguing and practical real-world examples; the chapter on overconfidence looks at horse-racing handicappers, Warren Buffet’s worst deal and the secret weapon of credit card companies. He also looks at the serious consequences of multitasking and data overload on what is at best a two- or three-track mind, from deciding the best course of cancer treatment to ignoring the real factors of our unhappiness (often by focusing on minor but more easily understood details). Quizzes and puzzles give readers a sense of their own capacity for self-deception and/or delusion. A lesson in humility as much as human behavior, Hallinan’s study should help readers understand their limitations and how to work with them.
Genius on the Edge : The Bizarre Double Life of Dr. William Stewart Halsted
by Gerald Imber
Intro to a Fresh Air interview with the author: In the second half of the 19th century, New York City’s population swelled from several hundred thousand to just over 2 million people. Conditions were not pleasant: Sewers were virtually nonexistent; piles of manure sat several inches high on sidewalks; and the city was overrun by disease.
Medical practices of the time were crude, at best: If surgical procedures were performed, they were done without sterilizing the equipment or the operating room, and typically ended with the patient losing an entire limb, if not his life.
It was in this environment that Dr. William Halsted began his surgical career. Halsted, who began the nation’s first residency program, pioneered techniques ranging from blood transfusions to sterilizing operating rooms. He also developed the radical mastectomy — also known as the Halsted mastectomy — reducing the local recurrence of breast cancer in patients nearly 50 percent. When Johns Hopkins Hospital opened its Department of Surgery in 1889, Halsted was named its first supervisor.
Though his legacy suggests a medical pioneer who made surgery safer and more precise, Halsted’s life was frequently messy.
That dual life is examined in Gerald Imber’s new biography of the doctor, Genius on the Edge: The Bizarre Double Life of Dr. William Stewart Halsted.
Imber traces Halsted’s journey from a young Columbia-trained medical student to a successful surgeon who secretly suffered from several narcotic addictions. Imber, himself a plastic surgeon, says that while Halsted was a “rigid perfectionist in some portions of his life, [he was] totally negligent and forgetful in others. He could leave a patient in a hospital bed for weeks on end and forget to operate on them.”
Imber talks to Fresh Air about Halsted’s dual lives and about 19th century American medicine. Imber is an internationally known plastic surgeon who specializes in facial rejuvenation and noninvasive surgical techniques.
Please tell me if you have a book to recommend or review for April’s post.
